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Thursday, August 29, 2013

Best Guess, Incredible Foresight, And Unbelievable Planning

To accurately guess your time on a 1000m test swim in the pool (without looking at the pace clock) takes practice and experience. To accurately guess your time on a 3 km swim in a calm lake (without looking at your wristwatch) is remarkable. To accurately guess your time on an English Channel swim is rare. But to accurately guess your relay time on a 228-mile swim in the Pacific Ocean is downright uncanny.

But Phil Cutti is that kind of athlete and prognosticator.

With a sharp intellect, some well-thought-out assumptions, and teammates who swam consistently well-paced through strong winds, large ocean swells, curious marine life, thick kelp beds, and night, the Night Train Swimmer was remarkably right on the money.

We asked Cutti to estimate the time that the Night Train Swimmers would take to swim 228 miles (367 km) from Gaviota State Park to the San Diego Yacht Club several weeks in advance of their attempt.

"My guess with a 3 pm start in Gaviota is that our best-case scenario would have us land at 11:43 am [the following week]; the worse-case scenario would have us land at 7:23 am [the next morning; but the likely case is that we will land in San Diego at 7:19 pm."

The Night Train Swimmers landed at 7:28 pm.

9 minutes off on a relay swim that lasted over 100 hours over 367 kilometers. Remarkably uncanny.

Copyright © 2013 by Open Water Swimming

A Thank You Gift from WOWSA

WOWSA is celebrating the
1-Year Anniversary of the monthly Open Water Swimming Magazine
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Open Water Swimming Magazine Anniversary Issue
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Open Water Swimming Magazine

Open Water Swimming Magazine

The Open Water Swimming Magazine is the monthly magazine entirely focused on open water swimming heroes and heroines of every age, ability, and background. Published by the World Open Water Swimming Association, the Open Water Swimming Magazine is a free benefit to WOWSA members.

WOWSA Member Benefits include 12 issues of the Open Water Swimming Magazine, the annual 276-page Open Water Swimming Almanac, a free listing in Sponsor My Swim, outstanding product discounts from FINIS, an entry in Openwaterpedia and more...

The Other Shore

The Other Shore follows world record holder and legendary swimmer Diana Nyad as she comes out of a thirty-year retirement to re-attempt an elusive dream: swimming 103 miles non-stop from Cuba to Florida without the use of a shark cage. Her past and present collide in her obsession with a feat that nobody has ever accomplished. At the edge of The Devil’s Triangle, tropical storms, sharks, venomous jellyfish, and one of the strongest ocean currents in the world, all prove to be life-threatening realities. Timothy Wheeler’s documentary brings Diana Nyad’s extraordinary adventure to life as Diana sets out to prove that will and determination are all you need to make the unimaginable possible.

2014 Open Water Swimming Almanac

An Almanac for Open Water Swimming

An almanac is essentially a body of knowledge which is so complete that it enables people in different fields to make predictions about the future of their respective industries.

This, for example, was the purpose of the traditional farmers almanacs. It enabled farmers to determine as accurately as possible which crops to plant for the greatest harvests in a given year.

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There are, of course, many different kinds of almanacs.

In fact, there is even one for open water swimming...

Preview the Open Water Swimming Almanac:

The trends are very clear.
The tide is rising for open water swimming.


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